Welcome to week 4! It starts to feel like we could finally get our heads straight and start to be able to distinguish between truths and lies on the soccer field. Not that there won’t be many surprises to come yet …
One of my favorite pieces to write will come next week, after four full weeks in the books. At this point we will know where we are in our league (s) and we can consider specific strategies to work with what we have, given where we are. The fantasy football advice isn’t uniform, but I’ll be using it more next week. Today I want to talk about the players eligible to return from the three week IR short and why they might be difficult to make decisions.
We’ve covered a lot of novelty bias in this column – our inherent preference for the new, and in some ways this generation of gamers fits the bill. They haven’t played yet this year, they could debut with a new team or have another “novelty” in their current situation through changes of coach or teammate. They haven’t let us down yet, that’s important, and depending on the person in question, the opportunity may be there for a real impact. Novelty Bias draws us in, supporting our waiver requests and FAAB offers.
Another force is at work here as well, and I don’t have a fancy name for it. Basically, we are influenced a lot by our fears when it comes to making decisions. In fact, we make decisions more to prevent what we don’t want to happen than to support what we want. We have the famous FOMO (fear of missing something), the fear of looking stupid (which causes us to follow what others are doing), and, in this context, the fear of disability or injury. Considering a player of a similar level, most of us would rather start the one who is in good health rather than the one who returns from injury.
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